Molecular epidemiology of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium: a prospective, multicenter study in South American hospitals.

Enterococcus faecium has emerged as an important nosocomial pathogen worldwide, and this trend has been associated with the dissemination of a genetic lineage designated clonal cluster 17 (CC17). Enterococcal isolates were collected prospectively (2006 to 2008) from 32 hospitals in Colombia, Ecuador, Perú, and Venezuela and subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Genotyping was performed with all vancomycin-resistant E. faecium (VREfm) isolates by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing. All VREfm isolates were evaluated for the presence of 16 putative virulence genes (14 fms genes, the esp gene of E. faecium [espEfm], and the hyl gene of E. faecium [hylEfm]) and plasmids carrying the fms20-fms21 (pilA), hylEfm, and vanA genes. Of 723 enterococcal isolates recovered, E. faecalis was the most common (78%). Vancomycin resistance was detected in 6% of the isolates (74% of which were E. faecium). Eleven distinct PFGE types were found among the VREfm isolates, with most belonging to sequence types 412 and 18. The ebpAEfm-ebpBEfm-ebpCEfm (pilB) and fms11-fms19-fms16 clusters were detected in all VREfm isolates from the region, whereas espEfm and hylEfm were detected in 69% and 23% of the isolates, respectively. The fms20-fms21 (pilA) cluster, which encodes a putative pilus-like protein, was found on plasmids from almost all VREfm isolates and was sometimes found to coexist with hylEfm and the vanA gene cluster. The population genetics of VREfm in South America appear to resemble those of such strains in the United States in the early years of the CC17 epidemic. The overwhelming presence of plasmids encoding putative virulence factors and vanA genes suggests that E. faecium from the CC17 genogroup may disseminate in the region in the coming years.

An analysis of the shortage of registered nurses (RNs) in acute care hospitals in El Paso, Texas

The purpose of this analysis of the shortage of Registered Nurses (RNs) in acute care hospitals in El Paso, Texas, was to evaluate twenty-two specific organizational and/or patient care unit (nursing unit) characteristics that effect the retention and turnover of professional nurses. Vacancy Rates were used to measure the level of the shortage in each hospital and nursing unit in the study. Vacancy Rates are a function of both RN retention and RN turnover. Seventy-three patient care units in five acute care hospitals were included in the study population.^ Fredrick Herzberg's motivational - hygiene theory was used to explain the types of characteristics or factors that can effect worker dissatisfaction. Dissatisfiers (hygiene factors) are those work place characteristics that influence workers to leave the job. The twenty-two potentially dissatisfying work place characteristics were either organizational or patient care unit specific in nature. The focus of the study was to evaluate high vacancy rates caused by both low retention of RNs and high turnover rates. Retention and turnover are a function of workers (RNs) not staying in their jobs, therefore hygiene factors were appropriate characteristics to study.^ Various multivariate analysis techniques were used to assess both the individual and combined effects of the hygiene factors on Vacancy Rates, Retention and Turnover. Results suggest that certain organizational and patient care unit characteristics are associated with and have a statistically significant effect on vacancy rates, and the retention and turnover of RNs. The type of Hospital was of particular interest in this regards. For-Profit facilities were less effected by most of the study variables than the Not-for-Profits. ^

The effectiveness of a needleless intravenous system in prevention of percutaneous injury in two hospitals

This study assessed if hospital-wide implementation of a needleless intravenous connection system reduces the number of reported percutaneous injuries, overall and those specifically due to intravenous connection activities.^ Incidence rates were compared before and after hospital-wide implementation of a needleless intravenous system at two hospitals, a full service general hospital and a pediatric hospital. The years 1989-1991 were designated as pre-implementation and 1993 was designated as post-implementation. Data from 1992 were not included in the effectiveness evaluation to allow employees to become familiar with use of the new device. The two hospitals showed rate ratios of 1.37 (95% CI = 1.22-1.54, p $\le$.0001) and 1.63 (95% CI = 1.34-1.97, p $\le$.0001), or a 27.1% and a 38.6% reduction in overall injury rate, respectively. Rate ratios for intravenous connection injuries were 2.67 (95% CI = 1.89-3.78, p $\le$.0001) and 3.35 (95% CI = 1.87-6.02, p $\le$.0001), or a 62.5% and a 69.9% reduction in injury rate, respectively. Rate ratios for all non-intravenous connection injuries were calculated to control for factors other than device implementation that may have been operating to reduce the injury rate. These rate ratios were lower, 1.21 and 1.44, demonstrating the magnitude of injury reduction due to factors other than device implementation. It was concluded that the device was effective in reduction of numbers of reported percutaneous injuries.^ Use-effectiveness of the system was also assessed by a survey of randomly selected device users to determine satisfaction with the device, frequency of use and barriers to use. Four hundred seventy-eight surveys were returned for a response rate of 50.9%. Approximately 94% of respondents at both hospitals expressed satisfaction with the needleless system and recommended continued use. The survey also revealed that even though over 50% of respondents report using the device "always" or "most of the time" for intravenous medication administration, flushing lines, and connecting secondary intravenous lines, needles were still being used for these same activities. Compatibility, accessibility and other technical problems were reported as reasons for using needles for these activities. These problems must be addressed, by both manufacturers and users, before the needleless system will be effective in prevention of all intravenous connection injuries. ^

Survey of safety climate in public hospitals in Costa Rica in 1997

In response to growing concern for occupational health and safety in the public hospital system in Costa Rica, a research program was initiated in 1995 to evaluate and improve the safety climate in the national healthcare system through regional training programs, and to develop the capacity of the occupational health commissions in these settings to improve the identification and mitigation of workplace risks. A cross-sectional survey of 1000 hospital-based healthcare workers was conducted in 1997 to collect baseline data that will be used to develop appropriate worker training programs in occupational health. The objectives of this survey were to: (1) describe the safety climate within the national hospital system, (2) identify factors associated with safety climate focusing on individual and organizational variables, and (3) to evaluate the relationship between safety climate and workplace injuries and safety practices of employees. Individual factors evaluated included the demographic variables of age, gender, education and profession. Organizational factors evaluated included training, psychosocial work environment, job-task demands, availability of protective equipment and administrative controls. Work-related injuries and safety practices of employees included the type and frequency of injuries experienced and reported, and compliance with established safety practices. Multivariate regression analyses demonstrated that training and administrative controls were the two most significant predictors of safety climate. None of the demographic variables were significant predictors of safety climate. Safety climate was inversely and significantly associated with workplace injuries and positively and significantly associated with safety practices. These results suggest that training and administrative controls should be included in future training efforts and that improving safety climate will decrease workplace injuries and increase safety practices. ^

The effect of the shift from HMO to PPO plans on the prevalence of hospital bad debt in the insured population: A case study in two Houston-area hospitals

In spite of the dramatic increase and general concern with U.S. hospital bad debt expense (AMNews, January 12, 2004; Philadelphia Business Journal, April 30, 2004; WSJ, July 23, 2004), there appears to be little available analysis of the precise sources and causes of its growth. This is particularly true in terms of the potential contribution of insured patients to bad debt expense in light of the recent shift in managed care from health maintenance organization (HMO) plans to preferred provider organization (PPO) plans (Kaiser Annual Survey Report, 2003). This study examines and attempts to explain the recent dramatic growth in bad debt expense by focusing on and analyzing data from two Houston-area hospital providers within one healthcare system. In contrast to prior studies in which self-pay was found to be the primary source of hospital bad debt expense (Saywell, R. M., et al., 1989; Zollinger, T. W., 1991; Weissman, Joel S., et al., 1999), this study hypothesizes that the growing hospital bad debt expense is mainly due to the shifting trend away from HMOs to PPOs as a conscious decision by employers to share costs with employees. Compared to HMO plans, the structure of PPOs includes higher co-pays, coinsurance, and deductibles for the patient-pay portion of medical bills, creating the potential for an increase in bad debt for hospital providers (from a case study). This bad debt expense has a greater impact in the community hospital than in the Texas Medical Center hospital. ^

Financial impact of the Medicare prospective payment system on long term acute care hospitals

Objective. Long Term Acute Care Hospitals (LTACs) are subject to Medicare rules because they accept Medicare and Medicaid patients. In October 2002, Medicare changed the LTAC reimbursement formulas, from a cost basis system to a Prospective Payment System (PPS). This study examines whether the PPS has negatively affected the financial performance of the LTAC hospitals in the period following the reimbursement change (2003-2006), as compared to the period prior to the change (1999-2003), and if so, to what extent. This study will also examine whether the PPS has resulted in a decreased average patient length of stay (LOS) in the LTAC hospitals for the period of 2003-2006 as compared to the prior period of 1999-2003, and if so, to what extent. ^ Methods. The study group consists of two large LTAC hospital systems, Kindred Healthcare Inc. and Select Specialty Hospitals of Select Medical Corporation. Financial data and operational indicators were reviewed, tabulated and dichotomized into two groups, covering the two periods: 1999-2002 and 2003-2006. The financial data included net annual revenues, net income, revenue per patient per day and profit margins. It was hypothesized that the profit margins for the LTAC hospitals were reduced because of the new PPS. Operational indicators, such as annual admissions, annual patient days, and average LOS were analyzed. It was hypothesized that LOS for the LTAC hospitals would have decreased. Case mix index, defined as the weighted average of patients’ DRGs for each hospital system, was not available to cast more light on the direction of LOS. ^ Results. This assessment found that the negative financial impacts did not materialize; instead, financial performance improved during the PPS period (2003-2006). The income margin percentage under the PPS increased for Kindred by 24%, and for Select by 77%. Thus, the study’s working hypothesis of reduced income margins for the LTACs under the PPS was contradicted. As to the average patient length of stay, LOS decreased from 34.7 days to 29.4 days for Kindred, and from 30.5 days to 25.3 days for Select. Thus, on the issue of LTAC shorter length of stay, the study’s working hypothesis was confirmed. ^ Conclusion. Overall, there was no negative financial effect on the LTAC hospitals during the period of 2003-2006 following Medicare implementation of the PPS in October 2002. On the contrary, the income margins improved significantly. ^ During the same period, LOS decreased following the implementation of the PPS. This was consistent with the LTAC hospitals’ pursuit of financial incentives.^

Financial impact of the Medicare prospective payment system on long term acute care hospitals

Objective. Long Term Acute Care Hospitals (LTACs) are subject to Medicare rules because they accept Medicare and Medicaid patients. In October 2002, Medicare changed the LTAC reimbursement formulas, from a cost basis system to a Prospective Payment System (PPS). This study examines whether the PPS has negatively affected the financial performance of the LTAC hospitals in the period following the reimbursement change (2003–2006), as compared to the period prior to the change (1999–2003), and if so, to what extent. This study will also examine whether the PPS has resulted in a decreased average patient length of stay (LOS) in the LTAC hospitals for the period of 2003–2006 as compared to the prior period of 1999-2003, and if so, to what extent. ^ Methods. The study group consists of two large LTAC hospital systems, Kindred Healthcare Inc. and Select Specialty Hospitals of Select Medical Corporation. Financial data and operational indicators were reviewed, tabulated and dichotomized into two groups, covering the two periods: 1999–2002 and 2003–2006. The financial data included net annual revenues, net income, revenue per patient per day and profit margins. It was hypothesized that the profit margins for the LTAC hospitals were reduced because of the new PPS. Operational indicators, such as annual admissions, annual patient days, and average LOS were analyzed. It was hypothesized that LOS for the LTAC hospitals would have decreased. Case mix index, defined as the weighted average of patients’ DRGs for each hospital system, was not available to cast more light on the direction of LOS. ^ Results. This assessment found that the negative financial impacts did not materialize; instead, financial performance improved during the PPS period (2003–2006). The income margin percentage under the PPS increased for Kindred by 24%, and for Select by 77%. Thus, the study’s working hypothesis of reduced income margins for the LTACs under the PPS was contradicted. As to the average patient length of stay, LOS decreased from 34.7 days to 29.4 days for Kindred, and from 30.5 days to 25.3 days for Select. Thus, on the issue of LTAC shorter length of stay, the study’s working hypothesis was confirmed. ^ Conclusion. Overall, there was no negative financial effect on the LTAC hospitals during the period of 2003–2006 following Medicare implementation of the PPS in October 2002. On the contrary, the income margins improved significantly. ^ During the same period, LOS decreased following the implementation of the PPS. This was consistent with the LTAC hospitals’ pursuit of financial incentives. ^

Defining barriers in caring for seriously-ill children in a resource-limited setting: An observational study of 2 children's hospitals in Haiti

Background. According to the WHO 2007 country report, Haiti lags behind the Millennium Development Goal of reducing child mortality and maintains the highest under-5 mortality rate in the Western hemisphere. 3 Overall, few studies exist that seek to better grasp barriers in caring for a seriously ill child in a resource-limited setting and only a handful propose sustainable, effective interventions. ^ Objectives. The objectives of this study are to describe the prevalence of serious illnesses among children hospitalized at 2 children's hospitals in Port au Prince, to determine the barriers faced when caring for seriously ill children, and to report hospital outcomes of children admitted with serious illnesses. ^ Methods. Data were gathered from 2 major children's hospitals in Port au Prince, Haiti (Grace Children's Hospital [GCH] and Hopital d l'Universite d'Etat d'Haiti [HUEH]) using a triangulated approach of focus group discussions, physician questionnaires, and retrospective chart review. 23 pediatric physicians participated in focus group discussions and completed a self-administered questionnaire evaluating healthcare provider knowledge, self-efficacy, and perceived barriers relating to the care of seriously ill children in a resource-limited setting. A sample of 240 patient charts meeting eligibility criteria was abstracted for pertinent elements including sociodemographics, documentation, treatment strategies, and outcomes. Factors associated with mortality were analyzed using χ2 test and Fisher exact test [Minitab v.15]. ^ Results. The most common primary diagnoses at admission were gastroenteritis with moderate dehydration (35.5%), severe malnutrition (25.8%), and pneumonia (19.3%) for GCH, and severe malnutrition (32.6%), sepsis (24.7%), and severe respiratory distress (18%) for HUEH. Overall, 12.9% and 27% of seriously ill patients presented with shock to GCH and HUEH, respectively. ^ Shortage of necessary materials and equipment represented the most commonly reported limitation (18/23 respondents). According to chart data, 9.4% of children presenting with shock did not receive a fluid bolus, and only 8% of patients presenting with altered mental status or seizures received a glucose check. 65% of patients with meningitis did not receive a lumbar puncture due to lack of materials. ^ Hospital mortality rates did not differ by gender or by institution. Children who died were more likely to have a history of prematurity (OR 4.97 [95% CI 1.32-18.80]), an incomplete vaccination record (OR 4.05 [95% CI 1.68-9.74]), or a weight for age ≤3rd percentile (OR 6.1 [95% CI 2.49-14.93]. Case-fatality rates were significantly higher among those who presented with signs of shock compared with those who did not (23.1% vs. 10.7%, RR=2.16, p=0.03). Caregivers did not achieve shock reversal in 21% of patients and did not document shock reversal in 50% of patients. ^ Conclusions. Many challenges face those who seek to optimize care for seriously ill children in resource-limited settings. Specifically, in Haiti, qualitative and quantitative data suggest major issues with lack of supplies, pre-hospital factors, including malnutrition as a comorbidity, and early recognition and management of shock. A tailored intervention designed to address these issues is needed in order to prospectively evaluate improvements in child mortality in a high-risk population.^

Catchment area of oral cleft cases for two major hospitals in Harris County

Background. Orofacial clefts are among the most common birth defects and considered to be of complex etiology with both genetic and environmental factors.^ Objectives. The purpose of this study was to describe maternal and infant characteristics, examine the catchment area, and determine if there are any geospatial patterns among infants with an orofacial cleft delivered at two major hospitals in Harris County, The Woman's Hospital of Texas and Memorial Hermann Hospital-Texas Medical Center, from January 1, 2003 through December 31, 2007.^ Methods. Data were obtained from two major hospitals in Harris County and included all babies delivered in the period from 2003 through 2007 with an orofacial cleft. Residential addresses were mapped using MapInfo GIS software and the cluster analysis performed with SaTScan software.^ Results. Ninety-nine cases were identified spanning nine counties. 26% of cases resided within a 5-mile radius of the Texas Medical Center. Birth rates ranged from 1.4 to 16.5 per 10,000 total births. A cluster was identified in southwest Harris County, however, it was not significant (p=0.066).^ Conclusion. This study encourages further focus on linking cleft cases to environmental factors in order to determine potential risks. ^

Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches in clinical outcomes between hospitals

Many public health agencies and researchers are interested in comparing hospital outcomes, for example, morbidity, mortality, and hospitalization across areas and hospitals. However, since there is variation of rates in clinical trials among hospitals because of several biases, we are interested in controlling for the bias and assessing real differences in clinical practices. In this study, we compared the variations between hospitals in rates of severe Intraventricular Haemorrhage (IVH) infant using Frequentist statistical approach vs. Bayesian hierarchical model through simulation study. The template data set for simulation study was included the number of severe IVH infants of 24 intensive care units in Australian and New Zealand Neonatal Network from 1995 to 1997 in severe IVH rate in preterm babies. We evaluated the rates of severe IVH for 24 hospitals with two hierarchical models in Bayesian approach comparing their performances with the shrunken rates in Frequentist method. Gamma-Poisson (BGP) and Beta-Binomial (BBB) were introduced into Bayesian model and the shrunken estimator of Gamma-Poisson (FGP) hierarchical model using maximum likelihood method were calculated as Frequentist approach. To simulate data, the total number of infants in each hospital was kept and we analyzed the simulated data for both Bayesian and Frequentist models with two true parameters for severe IVH rate. One was the observed rate and the other was the expected severe IVH rate by adjusting for five predictors variables for the template data. The bias in the rate of severe IVH infant estimated by both models showed that Bayesian models gave less variable estimates than Frequentist model. We also discussed and compared the results from three models to examine the variation in rate of severe IVH by 20th centile rates and avoidable number of severe IVH cases. ^

The impact of Medicare, Medicaid and Schip Extension Act of 2007 (MMSEA) on the long term acute care hospitals

The Long Term Acute Care Hospitals (LTACH), which serve medically complex patients, have grown tremendously in recent years, by expanding the number of Medicare patient admissions and thus increasing Medicare expenditures (Stark 2004). In an attempt to mitigate the rapid growth of the LTACHs and reduce related Medicare expenditures, Congress enacted Section 114 of P.L. 110-173 (§114) of the Medicare, Medicaid and SCHIP Extension Act (MMSEA) in December 29, 2007 to regulate the LTCAHs industry. MMSEA increased the medical necessity reviews for Medicare admissions, imposed a moratorium on new LTCAHs, and allowed the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to recoup Medicare overpayments for unnecessary admissions. ^ This study examines whether MMSEA impacted LTACH admissions, operating margins and efficiency. These objectives were analyzed by comparing LTACH data for 2008 (post MMSEA) and data for 2006-2007 (pre-MMSEA). Secondary data were utilized from the American Hospital Association (AHA) database and the American Hospital Directory (AHD).^ This is a longitudinal retrospective study with a total sample of 55 LTACHs, selected from 396 LTACHs facilities that were fully operational during the study period of 2006-2008. The results of the research found no statistically significant change in total Medicare admissions; instead there was a small but not statistically significant reduction of 5% in Medicare admissions for 2008 in comparison to those for 2006. A statistically significant decrease in mean operating margins was confirmed between the years 2006 and 2008. The LTACHs' Technical Efficiency (TE), as computed by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), showed significant decrease in efficiency over the same period. Thirteen of the 55 LTACHs in the sample (24%) in 2006 were calculated as “efficient” utilizing the DEA analysis. This dropped to 13% (7/55) in 2008. Longitudinally, the decrease in efficiency using the DEA extension technique (Malmquist Index or MI) indicated a deterioration of 10% in efficiency over the same period. Interestingly, however, when the sample was stratified into high efficient versus low efficient subgroups (approximately 25% in each group), a comparison of the MIs suggested a significant improvement in Efficiency Change (EC) for the least efficient (MI 0.92022) and reduction in efficiency for the most efficient LTACHs (MI = 1.38761) over same period. While a reduction in efficiency for the most efficient is unexpected, it is not particularly surprising, since efficiency measure can vary over time. An improvement in efficiency, however, for the least efficient should be expected as those LTACHs begin to manage expenses (and controllable resources) more carefully to offset the payment/reimbursement pressures on their margins from MMSEA.^

Usage of Urinary Antigen Test for Legionella on diagnosed community-acquired pneumonia in San Antonio hospitals

Purpose. To evaluate the use of the Legionella Urine Antigen Test as a cost effective method for diagnosing Legionnaires’ disease in five San Antonio Hospitals from January 2007 to December 2009. ^ Methods. The data reported by five San Antonio hospitals to the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District during a 3-year retrospective study (January 2007 to December 2009) were evaluated for the frequency of non-specific pneumonia infections, the number of Legionella Urine Antigen Tests performed, and the percentage of positive cases of Legionnaires’ disease diagnosed by the Legionella Urine Antigen Test.^ Results. There were a total of 7,087 cases of non-specific pneumonias reported across the five San Antonio hospitals studied from 2007 to 2009. A total of 5,371 Legionella Urine Antigen Tests were performed from January, 2007 to December, 2009 across the five San Antonio hospitals in the study. A total of 38 positive cases of Legionnaires’ disease were identified by the use of Legionella Urinary Antigen Test from 2007-2009.^ Conclusions. In spite of the limitations of this study in obtaining sufficient relevant data to evaluate the cost effectiveness of Legionella Urinary Antigen Test in diagnosing Legionnaires’ disease, the Legionella Urinary Antigen Test is simple, accurate, faster, as results can be obtained within minutes to hours; and convenient because it can be performed in emergency room department to any patient who presents with the clinical signs or symptoms of pneumonia. Over the long run, it remains to be shown if this test may decrease mortality, lower total medical costs by decreasing the number of broad-spectrum antibiotics prescribed, shorten patient wait time/hospital stay, and decrease the need for unnecessary ancillary testing, and improve overall patient outcomes.^

Comparison of financial trends in small rural and urban hospitals in Texas, 1983--1985

The purpose of this study was to compare the financial performance of small rural hospitals to that of small urban hospitals in Texas. Hospital-specific and environmental factors were studied as control variables.^ Small rural hospitals were found to be financially stronger on measures of liquidity but weaker on measures of profitability. Small urban hospitals performed better on measures of profitability and long-range solvency. When all measures in the five dimensions of financial performance were analyzed, no significant difference was found between the two groups of hospitals. None of the control variables included in the study was significantly associated with financial performance both for rural and urban hospitals. Conclusions were that small rural hospitals in Texas are experiencing a deterioration in financial condition but small, rural hospitals are not doing any worse than small urban hospitals; and that the financial hardship which rural hospitals suffer may be inherent in the nature of the institutions themselves, and not as a result of their smallness nor their rural settings. ^

A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^